Five listings on one block!

Since I posted about the Glut in Stewart Park back on September 10 it's only gotten worse. Although the house on Urban is Looking for Backup, Kansas was withdrawn, and two more have joined the three on the block of Delaware-Warwick. That's five for sale on one block! Which one will cut their price $100K or so to finally sell?

A good starting point is the only 2-story house, the 3 bed / 2 bath 1,754 SF house on a standard 6,500 SF lot at 3020 Delaware Ave., listed 8/6/09 for $975K, reduced in early October to $949K. It's a nice house, but impacted by the freeway a block away and not selling at this price.

"Restored two story traditional with contemporary style. The home is flooded with natural light complimenting the hardwood floors. The bedrooms are generously sized adding to the airy, bright and crisp aesthetic. The home lends itself to indoor/outdoor entertaining with a lush, well landscaped and private yard. Complete with detached artist's studio, spa, and sauna."

Around the corner is the 3 bed / 2 bath 1,229 SF house on a smaller 5,528 SF lot next to the alley at 1912 Warwick Ave. After its first listing was cancelled after 2 months, it was relisted 11/6/09 for $961.5K. Oh, and it last sold 6/16/06 for $765K.

From the photos it looks reasonably redone, but it's still a flipper seeking a $200K gain in a declining market, when the bigger house on a bigger lot around the corner isn't selling at a lower price. Riiight.

"Open Sunday 11/29, 1-4pm:: This beautiful corner lot house is DONE. Totally remodeled in 2007: 200 Amp electric, copper plumbing, central AC/heat, landscaping, recessed lighting, refinished wood floors, crown moldings and wood burning fireplace re-faced w stacked stone. Kitchen and bathrooms are completely remodeled with granite counters, travertine/marble tiles, jetted tub and double sink. Move right in!"

The newest listing is this 3 bed / 1.5 bath 1,279 SF house on the 4,739 SF corner lot next door to Warwick at 3064 Delaware Ave., listed 11/21/09 for $865K.

"First time on the market in 49 years. Lovely home on a corner lot. Three bedrooms and one and a half baths. Room to add shower in half bath. Separate formal dining room.Living room with fireplace. Detached office/study in back yard. Large canopy in rear yard.Several fruit trees. Well maintained home. Fenced throughout. Two car garage."

Next door to the two-story house is this 3 bed / 2 bath 1,183 SF house on a 6,500 SF lot at 3014 Delaware, listed 11/11/09 for $850K.

"Bright and cozy one story traditional on a quiet tree-lined street. This warm and colorful home features an open floor plan with a generously sized kitchen, dining room and living room. Both the master suite and the kitchen open to the lush, private yard. The home also features hardwood floors throughout, a detached garage and adjacent bonus room. Close to shops on Pico."

We'll close next door to the west (yes, that's literally three in a row!) with the 2 bed / 1 bath 1,011 SF house on a 6,500 SF lot at 3008 Delaware, asking $845K (reduced from $869K), last sold 4/7/06 for $769K. Why is there no sign in front?

"Charming, recently remodeled home on a tree-lined street in beautiful and desirable Stewart Park neighborhood. Fireplace in the Living Room, separate Dining Room, Laundry Room, Hardwood & Tiled Floors throughout, completely remodeled Bathroom and Kitchen, updated Plumbing and Electrical, 2-Car Garage, ample grassy Backyard with covered Patio and Vegetable Garden. Realtors ... come show and sell this move-in ready beauty!"

September S&P/Case-Shiller

In today's September 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller the uptick continued to flatten. Overall Los Angeles (including Orange County) was up 0.85% from August (compared with 1.6% from July), and is now down 38.7% from its September 2006 peak, at October 2003 levels. The national (orange line, their original 10-city Composite) index is down 29.9% from its peak in June 2006.

I've been reporting the Low, Middle, and High tiers; unfortunately those are no longer available without registration, so may not be updated going forward. I now have two columns on the chart: left is peak to bottom, right is peak to current month.

As I've been writing, I don't see this indicating a bottom on the Westside, which appears lagging the Case-Shiller for Los Angeles. My updated North of Montana Index has another year to go to hit my projection of 2003 prices in 2010, but is consistent with Case-Shiller's reversion to 2003 prices. The new 11/20/09 sale of 626 11th Street (although not on 9th-10th-12th-Euclid) was a third at $1.6M this year.

Finally, here is updated the Los Angeles Case-Shiller index scaled with the Los Angeles DataQuick median price history (normalized Case-Shiller's January 2000 = 100).

October DataQuick

Tuesday's DataQuick numbers for October tipped down again for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Caveats aside about the mix of houses sold and seasonality (first half of years is when rises mostly occurred), there doesn't look like much strength despite the huge government push of low interest rates and tax-credit zero-down FHA loans.

Los Angeles County's median was back down month-to-month to $325K, now down 40.9% for Los Angeles County from its peak in August 2007. Volumes were up 9% year-to-year from October 2008. (September DataQuick post)

That left Los Angeles County prices at July 2003, Orange County at August 2003, Ventura County at April 2003, and San Diego County at June 2002.

See Calculated Risk for more commentary.

Palisades 2003 rollback?

This Pacific Palisades 3 bed / 2 bath 2,054 SF house on a 12,600 SF lot at 1130 El Medio Ave., backing up to undeveloped hills. It was listed 10/22/09 for $1,475K. The big deal is, according to Redfin, that's 20% below its last sale on 8/25/04 for $1,850K. Anyone know details?

"Striking the perfect balance… Serenity and proximity… Ocean and mountains… Experience ocean views from the front and canyon views from the back. This 3 bedroom/2 bath upper El Medio home has been freshened up, yet offers an option for enhancement. Great floorplan, light & bright, hardwood floors, fireplace in living room, floor to ceiling windows, 2 car direct access garage. Back yard with grassy area and deck."

New north of Montana

Here are two new low-end north of Montana listings. First is the 4 bed / 2 bath 1,684 SF house on a 7,500 SF lot at 409 16th Street (above, click to enlarge), listed 10/28/09 for $1,850K. Does the location this far up nice 16th Street and 4 bedrooms get this premium over our low-end $1,600K or so?

"Showings on hold until Nov. 13th. We do not have a key into the house. Wonderful North of Montana Spanish! Original details & charm intact. Sweet breakfast room off kitchen. Front-facing living room w/ wonderful picture window overlooking tree-lined street. Formal dining room. Hardwood floors. First time on the market for 50+ years. Bedroom wing was added. Oversized, detached garage. Great location on great street. In the coveted Franklin District."

Second is this 3 bed / 1 bath 1,557 SF house (red arrow, third from the corner in the aerial, no listing photo provided) at 444 9th Street, listed 11/5/09 for $1,685K. It is pretty close to 320 9th's $1,600K and 454 9th's $1,576K sales prices (the corner house on the left in the aerial photo).

"English Tudor style home north of Montana. Spacious home with 3 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Living Room, Dining Room, Breakfast Room, Kitchen. This is a Trustee sale that does not require court approval; however offers will only be presented upon Buyer acknowledging they have received the inspection report. In addition, there is a Studio with a ¾ Bath; call listing agent for details. One car detached garage."

New, Sold, and Withdrawn/Expired listings

Santa Monica sales below $3 million were strong, but there were zero over $3 million. With only 2 new Santa Monica listings over $3 million (vs. 10 in 10/08), that's a really dead market. Most other numbers don't seem dramatically off what's typical.

October inventory charts

Catching up with October charts ... overall, Westside inventory is similar to this time a year ago, except for low-end Palms-Mar Vista. Santa Monica less than $3 million is higher.

Our big question is, are conditions such that prices will drop again in 2010 like they did earlier in 2009? Inventory level is a yes. Availability of jumbo loans is another yes. General economic outlook is more of a question. Dismal earlier this year, it's improved some in popular perception but hasn't changed the earlier drop in high-end prices.